| No | Author / Title / Abstract |
| 1. | Author: Dr. Ma. Socorro GOCHOCO-BAUTISTA
Designation: BSP Sterling Professor of Monetary and Banking Economics
Title: Global Crisis and the Reform of the International Monetary System
Abstract: History seems to have a tendency to repeat itself. The global economy goes through systemic crises. A few of these crises are catastrophic enough to seriously threaten global peace and stability. Yet it is precisely at historical junctures such as these that the inertia over reforming the international monetary system-the rules and institutions that govern international payments-is somehow overcome. World War I and general return to the gold standard in the 1920s led to a shortage of gold from its undervaluation. This was corrected by an appreciation in its price engineered through the great deflation of the 1930s. The shock of World War II brought about the Breton Woods Articles of Agreement. Pressure from a weak dollar in the 1970s helped create the European Monetary System. The first global crisis of the 21st century has turned out to be as severe as the Great Depression, and in some aspects, worse, though thankfully, not as long-lived. More importantly, its occurrence offers a rare opportunity to consider reforming the international monetary system yet again.
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| 2. | Author: Dr. Ben Paul GUTIERREZ
Designation: BSP-UP Centennial Professor of Business Administration
Title: Shopping Problems of Urban Filipino Consumers
Abstract: This paper describes the common problems encountered by urban Filipinos while shopping for groceries in supermarkets. Store exit interviews on 500 customers were conducted to elicit reasons for retail patronage and shopping difficulties. Typical Filipino shopping problems are not markedly different from their Western counterparts. Implications on how to improve the shopping experience are identified for Filipino retailers.
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| 3. | Author: Dr. Arthur CAYANAN
Designation: BSP-UP Centennial Professor of Accounting
Title: An Assessment of the Financial Reporting Practices of Some Listed Philippine Banks in 2008
Abstract: This article shows the results of the assessment of the listed Philippine banks’ financial reporting practices with regards to their compliance with the generally accepted accounting principles in the Philippines. The results were compared with the findings of the 2003 study on listed Philippine banks.
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| 4. | Author: Dr. Joel YU
Designation: BSP-UP Centennial Professor of Finance
Title: Markov-switching Models of Foreign Exchange Rates
Abstract: This paper extends the work of Solnik (1987) which characterize foreign exchange rate movements using equity returns. It employs a two-state Markov-switching (MSM) model to account for possible non-linear relationships between the weekly movements of six currency rates and their corresponding equity returns. Results suggest non-linearity in the relationship between the two variables. One state is associated with low volatility in exchange rates and equity returns; the other state is associated with an increased volatility in the two variables. The MSM approach in foreign exchange rate modeling is effective in calibrating the relationship between the two variables under different states.
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| 5. | Author: Dr. Antonio LALUSIN
Designation: BSP-UP Centennial Professor of Agriculture
Title: Abaca Breeding for a More Reliable Philippine Abaca Industry
Abstract: Abaca farmers produce 78,000 tons a year valued at over P6 billion. By 2020—when farms expand to 32,600 hectares—abaca fiber production should reach 152,000 metric tons. Fiber yield is expected to increase from 565kg per hectare per year to 900kg per hectare. This requires an investment of P330.9 million during the first five years. The cost of establishing a low-level technology abaca farm is P29,256/ha. Abaca, which matures in 18 to 24 months, can be harvested three times a year. Abaca extraction is 80-percent manual and only 1 percent of the fiber is recovered. But even with simple innovations, like a portable stripping machine that costs about P45,000, fiber extraction could increase only 3 percent.
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| 6. | Author: Dr. Joselito MAGADIA
Designation: BSP-UP Centennial Professor of Statistics
Title: Value-at-Risk Modeling via the Peaks-over-Threshold Approach
Abstract: This paper aims to address two main issues in Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling using the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) approach, viz., choice of threshold and volatility clustering. A number of analytical and graphical procedures are available in the literature. This paper presents some graphical procedures which have not appeared in the financial literature. To address the issue of volatility clustering, a self-exciting point process model is introduced. Finally, the modeling procedure is applied to PSE data from February, 1995 – February, 2009.
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| 7. | Author: Dr. Lisa Grace BERSALES
Designation: BSP Sterling Professor of Government and Official Statistics
Title: Enhancing Seasonal Adjustment of Philippine Time Series: Procedures under Seasonal Volatilities
Abstract: A number of Philippine time series exhibit volatilities in their seasonal behavior. Such a situation results in estimated seasonal factors contaminated by irregularities which should be in the irregular component. This paper proposes enhancing the current official procedure of seasonally adjusting volatile series through the use of statistical modeling. The procedure has three stages:(1) use of the current seasonal adjustment through X11-ARIMA, (2) statistical modeling of volatility of the resulting seasonal component and its extraction from the seasonal component, (3) use of X11-ARIMA to seasonally adjust the series less the volatility extracted from stage 2. This modification produces an additional component – seasonal volatility separate from the usual irregular component. Illustration of the procedure using series with varying degrees of seasonal volatility - Imports, Unemployment Rate, Consumer Price Index, and Gross Domestic Product .
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| 8. | Author: Dr. Cayetano PADERANGA, JR.
Designation: BSP-UP Centennial Professor of Money and Banking
Title: The Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances in the Philippines
Abstract: Over the past twenty-five years, policy changes in the Philippines and global trends leading to market and financial integration have unleashed forces that are changing the country’s economic structure. One of the most important effects is the increasing importance of overseas remittances to the Philippines. This paper looks at the macroeconomic and sectoral impact of remittances and how it has affected the country’s ability to manage its finances. What are the dilemmas posed by robust remittance inflows to our policymakers? In what ways can the government harness this valuable resource? More importantly how can the government lessen its impact on rising inequality which may threaten the country’s social fabric?
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