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Month-ahead Inflation Forecast for January 2019

01.31.2019

The BSP Department of Economic Research projects January 2019 inflation to settle within the 4.3 – 5.1 percent range. Domestic oil price hikes, due to higher international crude oil prices and the second tranche of the excise tax adjustment from the TRAIN Law, is seen to be the primary driver of inflation for the month. In addition, higher fish and vegetable prices due to colder weather conditions and the annual adjustments in the excise taxes of alcoholic beverages from the Sin Tax Law could result in additional upward price pressures. These may be partly offset by lower rice prices, downward adjustment in electricity rates, and the slight appreciation of the peso. Looking ahead, the BSP will remain watchful of evolving inflationary conditions to ensure that the monetary policy stance remains consistent with the BSP’s price stability mandate.

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