Monetary Policy Report August 2022
Monetary Policy Summary
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At its meeting on monetary policy on 18 August 2022, the BSP decided to
raise the interest rate on the overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility by 50
basis points to 3.75 percent, effective 19 August 2022. Accordingly, the
interest rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were raised to
3.25 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively.
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Economic Outlook
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The baseline inflation forecasts were revised upwards from the previous
round to 5.4 percent for 2022 and 4.0 percent for 2023. Meanwhile, inflation
could decelerate to 3.2 percent for 2024. The 2022 inflation forecast is higher
compared to the previous forecast by 0.8 ppt while the 2023 inflation forecast is
slightly higher by 0.1 ppt. The upward revisions in the projections are mainly driven
by the higher-than-expected inflation outturns in Q2 2022, higher nowcast for Q3
2022, approved jeepney fare hikes, and peso depreciation. These were partly offset
by slower domestic and global economic growth and the impact of the BSP’s
policy rate adjustments in May to July. Meanwhile, the assumptions for global oil
and non-oil prices are broadly in line with the previous forecast round.
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Current Developments
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Headline inflation rise further in July 2022. Inflation continued to increase,
registering at 6.4 percent in July 2022, the highest recorded since October 2018,
from 6.1 percent in the previous month. The resulting year-to-date average
inflation of 4.7 percent was higher than the National Government’s target range of
2.0-4.0 percent for the year. The further rise in the July inflation was due mainly to
supply constraints particularly in food and the continued elevated prices of oil in
the international market.
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Summary of MP Decisions
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