Monetary Policy Report February 2023
Monetary Policy Summary
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At its monetary policy meeting on 16 February 2023, the BSP decided to raise
the interest rate on the overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility by
50 basis points to 6.00 percent, effective 17 February 2023. Accordingly, the
interest rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also increased to
5.50 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
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Economic Outlook
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The latest baseline forecasts indicate that inflation will remain elevated in the
coming months with inflation averaging at 6.1 percent for 2023 and
3.1 percent for 2024. The forecast for 2023 was adjusted upwards by
1.8 percentage points (ppt), driven mainly by the higher-than-expected inflation
outturn in Q4 2022 and higher nowcast for Q1 2023 due to elevated prices of food,
utilities, and transport as well as more pronounced second-order effects on rent
and restaurants. The upward adjustment in the forecast path also reflects the
faster GDP growth outlook for 2023. These upside factors were offset partly by
lower global crude oil prices, currency appreciation, and the impact of the
cumulative policy rate adjustments of the BSP. Meanwhile, the forecast for 2024 is
unchanged at 3.1 percent.
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Current Developments
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Headline inflation accelerates further in January 2023. Inflation rose higher to
8.7 percent in January 2023 from 8.1 percent a month ago and 3.0 percent a year
ago. Food inflation went up further owing to disruptions to the supply of
vegetables and fruits, dairy and eggs, and fish. Faster increases were also observed
in rent and utility rates, and restaurant services.
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Summary of MP Decisions
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