The latest BSP estimates show that inflation, which has been elevated in recent months, could peak in the third quarter of the year (July-September 2022)
and remain above the target range of 2.0%-4.0% until the second quarter of next year (April-June 2023).
Inflation is likely to slow down and settle within the target range by the third quarter of next year (July-September 2023), as global oil and non-oil
prices start to ease. The impact of the BSP’s policy rate hikes will also help ease inflation in the second half of next year (July-December 2023).
Specifically, latest BSP estimates show that inflation will average 5.4% this year, higher than the previous estimate of 5.0% announced last June 23.
Meanwhile, the annual inflation forecast for 2023 is 4.0%, lower than the previous estimate of 4.2% announced in June. Inflation in 2024 is expected to
average at 3.2%, lower than the previous forecast of 3.3%.